Thousands of manufacturing jobs are at risk unless a new strategy is put in place to replace gas boilers with heat pumps, according to a think tank. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said the UK was well placed to produce new products and capture a share of jobs and investment. But it warned that not starting the process now would put 6,000 manufacturing jobs at risk, as the installation of boilers is phased out.
A “just transition” to heat pump manufacturing would reap huge economic rewards for UK workers, the IPPR said. Its report said that heat pumps were a crucial element of the UK’s just transition to decarbonise residential heating, moving away from gas boilers as they were more energy-efficient, can lower energy bills, and enhance energy security by reducing reliance on volatile gas markets in favour of domestic renewable power.
The report highlighted that the 2035 ban on the sale of boilers is essential for the UK to reach its commitments to be carbon neutral by 2050. The country needs to install at least five million heat pumps over the course of the next Parliament, and at least 19 million by 2050. However, the UK is still disproportionately installing more boilers than heat pumps – for every heat pump sold in the UK, 29 gas boilers are being sold.
Simone Gasperin of the IPPR emphasised that with gas boilers being phased out to meet net-zero targets, the UK’s dominance in the gas boiler market is nearing its end. The potential of an untapped market for heat pumps, combined with existing capabilities in heating and cooling manufacturing, places the UK in a strategic position to achieve a just transition. This shift could drive economic growth, protect skilled jobs, and achieve climate goals, but only with a coherent industrial strategy that aligns demand pulls with targeted business support measures.
A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson acknowledged the urgent need to upgrade British homes, especially after recent energy shocks. The Warm Homes Plan aims to transform homes across the country by making them cheaper and cleaner to run, with upgrades ranging from new insulation to solar and heat pumps. Unless action is taken promptly, a significant number of jobs may be at risk due to the failure to switch from gas boilers to heat pumps.